Would You Go?

In Seeing What's Next, Clayton Christensen and his fellow researchers use the principles they established in The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution to show readers how to predict radical and disruptive innovation. Then, they go on to apply those principles to some industries, one of which is the American Healthcare industry.

One trend they forecast is the continued increase in healthcare costs, and increased pressure on consumers to bear a greater share of those costs. Disruption typically occurs at the low-end of a given product's target market, (so-called "overserved consumers") and so predictably we should see the biggest changes in an industry emerge there. Also, when people are forced to go to central locations for limited resources, the theory says that this is another environment where disruptive innovation will occur. Recall how people used to have to buy computing time on mainframes and how they flocked to personal computers when given the chance - that's disruptive innovation. It changes the way people do things.

Evidence of this happening in healthcare can be seen in recent developments in "retail healthcare", such as the new MinuteClinic concept, where patients are promised quick access to certified professionals who can diagnose and treat the most common illnesses, such as colds and strep throat. The value propositions are speed and convenience to the consumer, and cost savings to the insurance carriers from fewer unnecessary trips to the family doctor.

Seeing this new business model makes me wonder... how long will it be before your primary care physician (PCP) becomes another specialist in the eyes of the insurance carriers? It's not hard to imagine insurers mandating that you visit your local healthcare retailer and get a referral to your PCP in order to ensure that you actually need to see him or her.

Frightening? Ask anyone you know in the healthcare industry "which insurance pays the worst, takes the longest to pay, and is the hardest to work with?" and hear the responses of "Medicaid" and "Medicare", which are the State and Federal government health insurance plans. Now just imagine that you have to use them in a nation with single-payer national health care.

Now that's frightening.